Week 6 Tossing Horseshoes: Home is where the heart is

Went a mere 2-3 last week.

I think the Steelers proved last week and this week that they play down to their competition. They had some chances to put away the Eagles after the numerous Vick fumbles, yet they failed to take full advantage and the game was closer than it should have been.
It was unfortunate that RGIII went down last week, pretty much ending the hope for my 'OVER' call, but that's the nature of this beautiful game.

Before my picks for this week, I wanted to share with you a video that was posted on my twitter wall (follow me @omie_g). If you ever wondered why so many pop hits sounded similar, here's an funny explanation.

Buccaneers -4 vs. Chiefs

In comes Brady Quinn to replace Matt Cassel and although Cassel is not a special QB neither is Brady Quinn. The Chiefs will be running a lot on Sunday to limit the turnovers and to let their beast Jamal Charles do most of the damage. Nonetheless, the Bucs also allow a paltry 3.6 YPC (7th in the NFL) and coming off the bye will have a game plan for the Chiefs running game. The Chiefs also struggle stopping the run allowing 4.6 YPC (23rd in the NFL). Doug Martin has been mediocre at best this season, but I say he'll have a nice game for the Bucs helping them secure a comfortable win.

Bengals, Browns 'OVER' 43.5

Both of these teams can put up decent points, 25 PPG for the Bengals and 20 PPG for the Browns. They also allow quite a few, both teams allow over 25 PPG. Last time these two teams met last than a moth ago, the score was 34-27 Bengals. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Cleveland. Even though some key defensive players are returning for both teams; Joe Haden (CLE) and Nate Clements (CIN), I feel that both QB's should have good games. I predict the Bengals to go up early and the Browns to keep it close by keeping up with the Cincinnati.

Cowboys +3.5 @ Ravens

 

The dangerous Jay Ratliff returns against the Ravens on Sunday. Good luck Flacco!

  

My only non home team pick this week, hence the title. The Cowboys will be rejoicing the return of Jay Ratliff of D and will be able to put Flacco under pressure throughout the game. The Cowboys will be motivated after their humiliating loss at home against the Bears coming off a bye week. The Ravens are a team that plays down to their competition, as exhibited in their close wins against the Buccaneers and the Browns. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home. I envision a very close game so I'll take the Cowboys and the points.

Dolphins -4 vs. Rams

The Rams are 3-0 at home at 0-2 on the road. With Danny Amendola out, Sam Bradford's passing options are quite limited. Steven Jackson won't have much success either against the beefy Dolphins rush D allowing a league low 2.6 YPC. Even though Reggie Bush is a little nicked up, he should have  pretty good day running against an average rush D. Even with a strong Ramn, secondary, Tannehill and Bush will be able to put up enough points to cover the line. I don't see the Dolphins running away with this game, but I feel they'll cover the points in a low scoring affair.

Seahawks +4 vs. Patriots

CenturyLink Stadium; one of the loudest in the NFL

Welcome to the CenturyLink Field Patriots, just don't get too comfortable. Seattle is one of the toughest to city to play in for an opposition and it's truly a home field advantage for the Seahawks. The Patriots are coming off two wins where they were able to freely run their offense and run teams to the ground. Unfortunately for the Pats, running against this Seahawks D, allowin a measly 3.3 YPC, is easier said than done. Brady won't be able to use the no huddle offense as effectively with the boisterous Seattle crowd, interrupting his rhythm. I don't think the Seahawks offense will do much to impress on Sunday, but they'll do enough to keep it close with the Pats. Seattle will prove on Sunday that home is truly where the heart is and cover the spread.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 14-12

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G